Post by radik on Feb 3, 2007 19:03:36 GMT -5
If this is your first visit here, the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula combines Average Score (60%), Highest Score plus Lowest Score (20%), and Winning PTC. (20%) to come up with a team's Power Rating for use in comparing teams both in the same league and in different leagues in ways other than just by Win-Loss Record (comparing teams in different leagues requires a little extra work, see below). The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula is sure to provoke endless hours of trash-talkin' and one-upsmanship!
If your league decides to use it, please drop me a note at oberonmtffl [at] gmail.com and I'll add you to our list . . . oh, and tell your FFL friends!
We've had some great feedback from Commissioners and owners from around the country about the Oberon Mt. Power Rating for fantasy football teams. Some thought the idea was great, and others hated it, mostly because their PR's didn't live up to their records. That's okay. Everyone has their own opinion and this is something you'll use if you want to gage a team's success or failure by means other than just their average score or just their record.
Besides comparing teams in the same league during the same season, our Power Rating is handy for comparing teams from previous seasons (same-sized leagues only). Simply plug the stats from the older team into the formula and you can get an idea who had the best team of all time in any particular league. A feature certain to spark hours of entertaining debate. (If there have been major scoring rule changes, simply treat them as different leagues - see Multi-League Protocols below)
The Math
[(avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2] ] <-- all this divided by 10
In English:
#1. Multiply the team's average score by six. Average score is the very basic stat to judge a team's prowess.
#2. Add the team's highest score to their lowest score (Deviation), and multiply the result by two. Over and above the average score, the Deviation gives more importance to a team's highest scoring game, while also punishing a team a little more for their lowest score.
#3. Take the owner's winning percentage and multiply by 200, then multiply that by two.** This portion of the Formula more than anything rewards and punishes for all the little intangibles associated with coaching a fantasy team. For instance, an owner that continues to win despite a less-than-impressive lineup is rewarded over and above their lagging average score. On the other hand, an owner that loses because he starts players on their bye week, or leaves injured players in their lineup, suffers twice . . . from points not scored by missing players and for the resulting losses.
#4. divide the total by 10.
** I know, multiplying by 200, then by two is the same as multiplying by 400, but doing this way shows that multiplying the winning ptc. by 200 first results in a number in the general area of the raw average score and raw deviation. Then multiplying the result by two shows the 20% weight.
The result is the Power Rating . . . or, if you like, the Potential Rating, since it actually is meant to judge the potential score a team might be expected to score on any given weekend compared to its average score. Remember, as the season progresses, a team's average score changes more and more slowly as the number of games included increases. The Power Rating formula takes not only the average score into account, but also recent extreme high or low scores, and winning or losing trends.
Definition of Terms:
Average score - Total of a team's points scored divided by the number of games played.
Deviation - Take the team's highest score and add to it the team's lowest score.
Winning Percentage. - Divide the team's number of wins by the number of games played.
What Does This All Mean?
Let's look at two examples of how the Power Rating can be used to compare different teams:
In 2003 the top two teams in the Oberon Mt. FFL both earned first round byes and defeated their opponents in the semi-finals. The top seed, the Roadrunners, finished our 13 game season 11-2, with an average of 68.9 ppg and a deviation total of 137 (91+46).
The Tytans finished two games back at 9-4, but averaged just .6 points less per game at 68.3, and had a slightly better deviation total of 142 (104+38).
As you can probably guess, the resulting Power Rankings at the end of the regular season were very close: Roadrunners 102.6, Tytans 97.08 - indicating two teams more closely matched than their records might imply.
In our Championship Game, the OberBowl, the Tytans broke 100 for the fourth time this season and defeated the Roadrunners 107 to 77.
Power Ratings figured after the playoffs found the Tytans finishing on top there, too, with a 102.6. The Roadrunners, 1-1 in the playoffs, finished with a PR of 101.12
In our second example, the RPB Express finished last in our league at 2-11. They averaged 49.15 ppg, and had a deviation total of 110 (73+37). Because of a positive deviation compared to their average, the Power Ranking for this team was 57.65 (about 8 points above their average). And although this team had the worst record, another team, the Bobbyknockers finished 3-10 but had a worse average at 46.85, and a lower deviation of 95 (65+30), finishing with a lower PR of 56.34. Only a point and a half difference, but enough to fuel an off-season-long argument as to which team was the worst!
Multi-League Protocol
Before you go on, you must realize that fair comparisons using this method can only be made when the Leagues involve have the same number of teams since the quality of teams in a 12-team league should be better than teams in a 16-team league.
In order to compare two teams in different, but similar sized, leagues, you must first figure the Oberon Mt. Power Rating for each team using their stats from their individual leagues. Do that by following the formula above.
If the different leagues of the teams you are trying to compare use exactly the same scoring formula, you can simply compare Oberon Mt. Power Ratings to see how the teams measure up against each other.
However, to compare teams from different leagues using different scoring formulas, you need something like our Multi-League Protocol. Using the scoring formula from each league you have to find the Baseline-Perfect score for each league. This only has to be done once (as long as that league's scoring formula doesn't change). In fact, it would be great if an owner in each league determined the Baseline-Perfect score prior to the beginning of the season and shared it with the other owners in his league so they can learn to appreciate the Oberon Mt. Power Rating.
Determining a Baseline-Perfect Score
October 4, 2005 Update
Defense/Special Teams scoring to determine the Baseline-Perfect Score for the Multi-League Protocol has been updated to include fumble return yardage, and to separate all four return yardage categories. See Multi-League Protocol below.
First, a league's Baseline-Perfect score is NOT the absolute highest score a team could possible score in any given week, but hitting it would just about take a miracle. Using your league's scoring system, determine the total as if these five positions scored as follows:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
One Kicker - 4 extra points, one 29 yard field goal, one 49 yard field goal, and one 59 yard field goal.
One Defense/Special Teams - (updated October 4, 2005) one safety, six sacks, three interceptions, three fumble recoveries, a 60 yard punt return for a touchdown, a 90 yard kickoff return for a touchdown, 46 yard interception return for a TD, 101 punt return yards, 130 kickoff return yards (giving points for kickoff return yards rewards poor defensive performance), 55 interception return yards, 25 fumble return yards.
One QB - 51 yards rushing, one 10 yard rushing TD, 351 yards passing, one 55 yard passing TD, two 20 yard passing TD's.
One RB - 10 yard rushing TD, 60 yard rushing TD, one 21 yard receiving TD, 151 total rushing yards, 50 receiving yards.
One Receiver (wide or tight) - 25 yards rushing, one 75 yard receiving TD, two twenty yard receiving TD's, 151 total receiving yards.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
We've tried to incorporate many different ways of scoring that cover most of the scoring formulas used by most fantasy leagues. If your league doesn't give points for one or more of the stats we've presented here, don't worry about it. That won't affect the validity (such as it is) of this procedure. For our Oberon Mt. Fantasy Football League, the Baseline-Perfect score is 141 points.
Now you have to compare your team's Power Rating to your League's Baseline-Perfect score. Divide your team's Power Rating by your League's Baseline-Perfect score and multiply the result by 100. That will tell you what percentage of the Baseline-Perfect score your Power Rating is.
For instance, in our league a Power Rating of 85 is 60.284% of our Baseline-Perfect score. This is the number an OMFFL team with a Power Rating of 85 would use to compare themselves with a team in another league.
If your league decides to use it, please drop me a note at oberonmtffl [at] gmail.com and I'll add you to our list . . . oh, and tell your FFL friends!
We've had some great feedback from Commissioners and owners from around the country about the Oberon Mt. Power Rating for fantasy football teams. Some thought the idea was great, and others hated it, mostly because their PR's didn't live up to their records. That's okay. Everyone has their own opinion and this is something you'll use if you want to gage a team's success or failure by means other than just their average score or just their record.
Besides comparing teams in the same league during the same season, our Power Rating is handy for comparing teams from previous seasons (same-sized leagues only). Simply plug the stats from the older team into the formula and you can get an idea who had the best team of all time in any particular league. A feature certain to spark hours of entertaining debate. (If there have been major scoring rule changes, simply treat them as different leagues - see Multi-League Protocols below)
The Math
[(avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2] ] <-- all this divided by 10
In English:
#1. Multiply the team's average score by six. Average score is the very basic stat to judge a team's prowess.
#2. Add the team's highest score to their lowest score (Deviation), and multiply the result by two. Over and above the average score, the Deviation gives more importance to a team's highest scoring game, while also punishing a team a little more for their lowest score.
#3. Take the owner's winning percentage and multiply by 200, then multiply that by two.** This portion of the Formula more than anything rewards and punishes for all the little intangibles associated with coaching a fantasy team. For instance, an owner that continues to win despite a less-than-impressive lineup is rewarded over and above their lagging average score. On the other hand, an owner that loses because he starts players on their bye week, or leaves injured players in their lineup, suffers twice . . . from points not scored by missing players and for the resulting losses.
#4. divide the total by 10.
** I know, multiplying by 200, then by two is the same as multiplying by 400, but doing this way shows that multiplying the winning ptc. by 200 first results in a number in the general area of the raw average score and raw deviation. Then multiplying the result by two shows the 20% weight.
The result is the Power Rating . . . or, if you like, the Potential Rating, since it actually is meant to judge the potential score a team might be expected to score on any given weekend compared to its average score. Remember, as the season progresses, a team's average score changes more and more slowly as the number of games included increases. The Power Rating formula takes not only the average score into account, but also recent extreme high or low scores, and winning or losing trends.
Definition of Terms:
Average score - Total of a team's points scored divided by the number of games played.
Deviation - Take the team's highest score and add to it the team's lowest score.
Winning Percentage. - Divide the team's number of wins by the number of games played.
What Does This All Mean?
Let's look at two examples of how the Power Rating can be used to compare different teams:
In 2003 the top two teams in the Oberon Mt. FFL both earned first round byes and defeated their opponents in the semi-finals. The top seed, the Roadrunners, finished our 13 game season 11-2, with an average of 68.9 ppg and a deviation total of 137 (91+46).
The Tytans finished two games back at 9-4, but averaged just .6 points less per game at 68.3, and had a slightly better deviation total of 142 (104+38).
As you can probably guess, the resulting Power Rankings at the end of the regular season were very close: Roadrunners 102.6, Tytans 97.08 - indicating two teams more closely matched than their records might imply.
In our Championship Game, the OberBowl, the Tytans broke 100 for the fourth time this season and defeated the Roadrunners 107 to 77.
Power Ratings figured after the playoffs found the Tytans finishing on top there, too, with a 102.6. The Roadrunners, 1-1 in the playoffs, finished with a PR of 101.12
In our second example, the RPB Express finished last in our league at 2-11. They averaged 49.15 ppg, and had a deviation total of 110 (73+37). Because of a positive deviation compared to their average, the Power Ranking for this team was 57.65 (about 8 points above their average). And although this team had the worst record, another team, the Bobbyknockers finished 3-10 but had a worse average at 46.85, and a lower deviation of 95 (65+30), finishing with a lower PR of 56.34. Only a point and a half difference, but enough to fuel an off-season-long argument as to which team was the worst!
Multi-League Protocol
Before you go on, you must realize that fair comparisons using this method can only be made when the Leagues involve have the same number of teams since the quality of teams in a 12-team league should be better than teams in a 16-team league.
In order to compare two teams in different, but similar sized, leagues, you must first figure the Oberon Mt. Power Rating for each team using their stats from their individual leagues. Do that by following the formula above.
If the different leagues of the teams you are trying to compare use exactly the same scoring formula, you can simply compare Oberon Mt. Power Ratings to see how the teams measure up against each other.
However, to compare teams from different leagues using different scoring formulas, you need something like our Multi-League Protocol. Using the scoring formula from each league you have to find the Baseline-Perfect score for each league. This only has to be done once (as long as that league's scoring formula doesn't change). In fact, it would be great if an owner in each league determined the Baseline-Perfect score prior to the beginning of the season and shared it with the other owners in his league so they can learn to appreciate the Oberon Mt. Power Rating.
Determining a Baseline-Perfect Score
October 4, 2005 Update
Defense/Special Teams scoring to determine the Baseline-Perfect Score for the Multi-League Protocol has been updated to include fumble return yardage, and to separate all four return yardage categories. See Multi-League Protocol below.
First, a league's Baseline-Perfect score is NOT the absolute highest score a team could possible score in any given week, but hitting it would just about take a miracle. Using your league's scoring system, determine the total as if these five positions scored as follows:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
One Kicker - 4 extra points, one 29 yard field goal, one 49 yard field goal, and one 59 yard field goal.
One Defense/Special Teams - (updated October 4, 2005) one safety, six sacks, three interceptions, three fumble recoveries, a 60 yard punt return for a touchdown, a 90 yard kickoff return for a touchdown, 46 yard interception return for a TD, 101 punt return yards, 130 kickoff return yards (giving points for kickoff return yards rewards poor defensive performance), 55 interception return yards, 25 fumble return yards.
One QB - 51 yards rushing, one 10 yard rushing TD, 351 yards passing, one 55 yard passing TD, two 20 yard passing TD's.
One RB - 10 yard rushing TD, 60 yard rushing TD, one 21 yard receiving TD, 151 total rushing yards, 50 receiving yards.
One Receiver (wide or tight) - 25 yards rushing, one 75 yard receiving TD, two twenty yard receiving TD's, 151 total receiving yards.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
We've tried to incorporate many different ways of scoring that cover most of the scoring formulas used by most fantasy leagues. If your league doesn't give points for one or more of the stats we've presented here, don't worry about it. That won't affect the validity (such as it is) of this procedure. For our Oberon Mt. Fantasy Football League, the Baseline-Perfect score is 141 points.
Now you have to compare your team's Power Rating to your League's Baseline-Perfect score. Divide your team's Power Rating by your League's Baseline-Perfect score and multiply the result by 100. That will tell you what percentage of the Baseline-Perfect score your Power Rating is.
For instance, in our league a Power Rating of 85 is 60.284% of our Baseline-Perfect score. This is the number an OMFFL team with a Power Rating of 85 would use to compare themselves with a team in another league.